February 5, 2016: The Lead Pipe Lock Pick

So Super Bowl Sunday is almost here… the end to another football season.  Some people get really devastated by this.  I’ll be OK.  Hawks, Bulls, and Cubs on the horizon… yeah, I can wait to experience another year of Bears pain; our season has been over for a while now. 

I think I’ll actually watch this Super Bowl.  Last year I remember shoveling outside, as Art Van got hit hard with that “snow on Super Sunday promotional furniture giveaway”, during the game.  I did come back to see an exciting end.  This year, maybe, just maybe, I’ll watch the whole thing. 

It’s been a rough year ATS.  Here are my current records.  I think after this game, I’ll just lump them all together if/when I continue this feature. 

2015 NFL Playoffs:  8-3

2016 NFL Regular Season:  17-17

2016 NFL Playoffs:  3-3

This pick will decide if my season is a winning or losing one.  Actually, with the juice involved, it’s already losing, but still… still nice to be over 500 than under.  So I present to you my lead pipe lock pick of the year.
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I’m pretty decent when it comes to Super Bowl picks.  That’s because my pick against the grain philosophy that hurts me a lot in all other football pools I get involved in, actually comes in handy during the biggest bet game of the year.  I’ve won money on Tampa Bay over Oakland, Arizona covering against Pittsburgh… I picked last year’s winner the New England Patriots.  I won money on the Saints over the Colts.  I lost money on the Bears Colts… hate to even mention that one.  I did pick Seattle over Denver too…

So now we have Carolina and Denver.  The line came out around 4, and has been bet up to 6.  Lots of money, both public and sharp coming in on Carolina, and the line is adjusting properly.  Generally, the public does not win in the Super Bowl.

I can’t possibly root for Denver in this one.  With Peyton Manning, the guy who took us out, at the helm.  And with Ron Rivera, ex-85 Bear coaching the Panthers, it’s an easy choice, right?  Well, yeah.  I’m not a fan of Cam.  I do like both defenses.  Carolina has never won one.  Just some other random thoughts on the game.  But this isn’t about who I’ll be rooting for… it’s about who’s going to show me the money.  It’s time to saddle up…

And yes, that is a Broncos reference.  My pick is Denver +6 Carolina.  I have the eerie feeling that this will be a Carolina 3 point victory.  If I had to choose a team to win straight up, I’d have to lean Carolina.  I heard some guy bet 650K in Vegas on the Panthers ML.  But when it comes to the points, I’m taking them.  I’m taking them because Carolina has been blowing teams out… Will they blowout the Broncos too?  It does seem like people have doubted Carolina all year.. and that scares me… since they’ve been showing and proving every single week.  They have been the best team in football all year long.  And not that I’m comparing them to the 85 Bears, but we did blow out the first 2 opponents and then proceed to blowout the Pats in the Super Bowl.  Yeah, I can’t compare any team to the 85 Bears, so I’m not going to use that reasoning.  And Denver, poor Peyton whose arm is falling off, did throw 2 TDs last week.  Is that a sign of a big game?  After what the Panthers D did to Carson Palmer?  Man, it’s easy to see why people are unloading on the Panthers.

But… that’s why I stick to my pick… and the points.  I’m good with 6… if it hops up to 7, I’ll be happy to take the extra point, but don’t think I’ll need it.  That original line was 4… so anybody betting Carolina didn’t get anything less than that.  So I predict a Carolina victory by 3, 2, or 1 point.  And that means a Denver ATS win.

Good luck to everybody on this Super Bowl sunday.  All the squares, picks, pools… the most bet game of the year.  All the prop bets… I’d like to get to Vegas for a Super Bowl and mess around with those bets.  There are some fun ones.  But for now, we’ll stick to the basics… and pick ATS.  Denver +6 to determine my winning season or losing season.  I’ll be OK if I lose this pick… since I really want to see Carolina win.  Either way, here’s hoping for a good, entertaining, not so fixed game.  I might be stretching it there… you’ll see.  Enjoy the last football day of the year.