It was July 6th, and I had won a nice K prop bet with Jacob Lopez from the Athletics. After a bit of a hot streak, I had settled back down, and was riding even for a while. This was my last winning bet. Since then, 12 losers in a row, essentially cutting my bankroll in half. I’ve been on losing streaks before, but man… 12 in a row?!?! This may be THE losing streak.
How does this happen? I’m sticking with my same routine, for the most part. Funny thing about “the streak” is that I haven’t really been close. It’s not like I’ve taken some brutal beats along the way; they’ve just been plain, flat-out losers. Should I have stopped after 6 in a row and taken a break? Should I have cut my wager size during this cliff dive? When you’re going through something like this, when you can’t even pick one winner… it’s tough; you start to question everything. I guess it was a good time for the All-Star break; no baseball to bet on for 4 days…
I’ve reduced the number of wagers I made, in general, for a while now. I’m not betting on a ton of games; maybe I need to cut back even more. Maybe I need to just make “premium” plays? So I’ve been playing games I’m so-so on? Not necessarily. I don’t know. This is what I think about. As the streak continues, I think about doubling my wager, trying to help me make it back; that’s never smart. I haven’t done that. I think about chasing more… in-game plays, doubling up on my original play when I get better odds; I have done a little of that… not good. I mean, with 100s, 1000s of bets available on a daily basis, I can’t find one winner?!?! Yeah, it goes like that sometimes; I’ve been down this road before. When this happens, taking a break can be helpful; this break was forced on me, with no action for a while. Then, just get the nose to the grindstone basically; work my way back up. I’ve done it before… not to my highest point; how the hell did I come down from my highest point? Maybe I should study that more; maybe that will give me a clue(s).
I’m still playing with “house money”; that’s what I tell myself to feel better. Regardless if my whole bankroll evaporates, I’m still down exactly $0; that DOES make me feel good. I think about the pending Illinois tax on wagers; depending on which way Draft Kings goes with it, I may be on a temporary retirement anyways. It would be a non-profitable proposition for me to continue to wager with the additional taxes, considering my profit has been so razor thin to this point, 2.5 years back in my investment mode. How do I increase my profits? How I break the cycle of “breaking even” essentially? Certainly not by losing 12 wagers in a row…
This isn’t for the faint of heart, let me tell you. There is a reason a very small percentage of people are successful at this over the long term; I thought maybe I could be part of that percentage. Maybe not. I’ve focused my attention on NFL win totals, placing my first wager there, but now… the lines are out for Friday’s baseball games; will I hit 13 in a row? We’ll find out. I just found a K prop I like; Luzardo 7+ Ks vs the Angels. I’ve locked it in. Hey, whatever happened to staying away from props??? Is that part of my problem?? Stay tuned.
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