With the NBA and NHL seasons winding down, baseball is about to be the only show in town, at least when it comes to sports’ investments. Not going to dip into other sports; will most certainly start to get ready for NFL/College Football season. However, as far as live action day in day out, it’s the MLB or nothing; sometimes nothing is the right answer.
In an attempt to find “something”, I review a few things on a daily basis in baseball. One thing I look at is the batter pitcher historical matchups; there’s a number of things that could come out of here. I know I’m not a huge fan of player props, but… I have been looking at that more than not recently. Out of this review, I can find an individual hitter with an advantageous matchup, and decide to take the home run, hits, or total bases prop; I am still soaking in the whole hits vs total bases prop, and which is better to take in this spot. Furthermore, I can look at how an entire team fares vs the opposing starter on that day. Maybe a spot to take that team on the ML, or, even dabble into the over/under run total, if there are favorable/unfavorable matchups for both teams. Again, don’t typically bet on the totals, but… have to keep an eye on it. Next up, I’ve been looking at the strikeout numbers by team, which I will then matchup to the strike out capabilities of the starting pitcher; is there an opportunity to bet on the K prop? There are other searches that may come out of what I see when I’m reading through this stuff. Since I’m big into fantasy baseball, I always have other angles to check. Sometimes all of this leads to nothing… sometimes it leads to something, like the other day…
Flashback to Saturday evening. It was late game, Marlins at Angels; I had zoned in on the starter for the Marlins that day, Cal Quantrill. His strikeout numbers have been looking pretty good AND he was facing a team that strikes out a whole hell of a lot. OK, I felt pretty good about 6+ strikeouts on the evening. Since it was a late game, I was keeping an eye on it; he was on a strikeout an inning pace in the first 2 innings. He didn’t get any in the 3rd, and ran into a little trouble in the 4th; the Marlins were winning 1-0. No worries, time to get out of the jam and strike out some more guys. Then… the manager took him out of the game; excuse me? Yes, with 3.1 innings pitched and 46 pitches thrown (31 for strikes), he was pulled from the game. I just laughed; there’s nothing you can do with that. I searched twitter… looking for reasons, an injury, etc; I got nothing. Many folks were stumped, calling the manager an idiot, saying Vegas made the call, etc, etc. Postgame the manager gave some vague answer, while Cal didn’t speak; things that make you go hmmm…
So here we sit, looking at Cal again, and his strikeout totals at home vs the Giants on Friday evening, who strike out a whole hell of a lot on the road. His K prop: 2.5… huh? Well, if he’s pulled out in the middle of the 3rd inning, I may not feel good about that number, but… if he pitches a normal game, I mean, do I really have to stick to my unit play??? I’m going to wait and see, but if all appears OK, and if the juice doesn’t get too high… Like they say… you need a bottle of whiskey and a revolver to bet on baseball…
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Interesting take on the transition from NBA and NHL to MLB as the main sports focus. I’ve always found baseball to be a bit slower-paced compared to other sports, but your approach to analyzing matchups and props makes it sound more engaging. I’m curious, though—how do you balance the time spent on research versus the actual enjoyment of watching the games? It seems like a lot of effort goes into finding those advantageous matchups. Also, do you think player props are becoming more popular in baseball betting, or is it still a niche area? I’ve been considering diving into it myself, but I’m not sure where to start. Your point about strikeout numbers and pitcher matchups is intriguing—do you think that’s a more reliable metric than, say, ERA or WHIP? Lastly, how do you handle those days when all your research leads to nothing? Does it feel like wasted time, or is it just part of the process? Would love to hear your thoughts!