How good are projections after all? We know how much we can rely on “expert” opinions when it comes to picking NFL winners, and for the purpose of this blog, who to start & sit in your fantasy lineup week to week. But these projections… numbers fed into a model with all kinds of mumbo jumbo factored in which will spit out an estimate of how many fantasy points each player will get. How much do you trust them?
I’m glad I don’t put too much stock in them. I mean, if you’re projected to win by like 50 points, something like an 80-20% chance to win, you should feel pretty good. But it has to be something drastic like that for me to start believing the hype. Hold on, I’m getting to the point. So if someone is projected to win a fantasy matchup by let’s say about 20 points, or a 63% win probability, I’m not trusting it. No, I don’t believe my opponent will score that much, and I believe my team will score more. Yes, I do think my first round fantasy football playoff matchup is really up for grabs.
For starters, his WRs… the 4 guys he’s starting (3 WR & 1 Flex) are all projected to score in the top 7 WRs in the NFL this week. Davante, Keenan, Lockett, and Julio are really good, but there’s no way I think they’re going to score a combined 81.17 points. My WRs are the weakest link on my team, mostly thanks to Golladay being out most of the year, and Juju underperforming. I have to roll with Juju; there’s just not that much out there besides the guy from Houston and some Jacksonville receivers, one of which I have on my bench. It’ll be Aiyuk from the Niners in my other WR slot along with Perriman from the Jets; hey he might do OK… it’s either Crowder or him for D’arnold this week. I certainly think they’ll outperform their 35.7 projected points though.
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I think I’m rolling with both my TEs this week: Andrews is back and Fant is better as long as Lock is decent. Honestly never heard of the TE I’m going against: Thomas from Washington? Last but certainly not least are the defense and kickers. I’m going with Robbie Gould; he’s got Koo from Atlanta. Hoping this is a wash. On defense, he’s got the Saints, which taking into account the recent developments at QB in Philly, is quite fortuitous for him. I’m feeling fine about the Niners defense hosting Washington, in Arizona that is.
So screw the projections! And yeah, I’m NOT starting Miles Sanders no matter what his projected point total is because he’s sucked all year!!! Bring it on Yahoo… bring it on…
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