OK, it’s that time of year… NFL Playoffs! Yeah, yeah, no Bears… again… but we’re on our way, running back Eberflus and Fields… yay! From 3 wins to 7 wins to ??? OK, this isn’t about the Bears; this is about the remaining teams, and figuring out what teams I’m going to wager my hard earned cash on. Let’s start with Wild Card Saturday.
Cleveland Browns -2.5 at Houston Texans
The playoff season will get kicked off with a bang. This is a battle between the top 2 coach of the year candidates. This is a battle between a team that was destroyed with injuries and survived, aided by an amazing defense with a QB who was pulled off his couch to lead the way down the stretch vs a team that made a remarkable turnaround from one year to the next with a first year coach and 2 top of the 1st round picks on either side of the ball, most importantly picking the right QB, leading the future of this franchise. This should be a good one.
I was waiting to bet the Browns in the postseason… Flacco fever they say. But this matchup, this spot… I’m second guessing myself. These two teams have met recently. If you recall, like I do, it was the Amari Cooper blowout game that knocked me out of one of my fantasy football playoff matchups. The Browns buried the Texans in Houston. Of course, if you also recall, the Texans were without CJ Stroud; kind of a big deal… Still, the defense was healthy, right? What will stop the Browns from going up and down the field again? With the Browns defense, Stroud and the Texans won’t be able to keep up, right? Well, that vaunted Browns defense… hasn’t been as good on the road, like they have been at home. And Flacco, for as great of a gun slinger as he’s been, he turns the ball over a heck of a lot. I imagine the Texans defense will remember the last meeting. Neat fact: The Texans have played in this first game on Saturday each of the past 6 years they’ve made the playoffs; they’re 4-2. Browns have played twice on Wild Card Saturday; they’re 0-2. Not basing my wager on that, but thought it was interesting.
I’m going to watch the line; at one point it was 3.5 If it gets back there, I’ll be on the Texans. Either way though, I feel like my decision has been made.
Texans plus the points
Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 vs Miami Dolphins
Another rematch of a previous game this season. Kansas City won the first time around in Germany. If they won back then, on a neutral field, indoors, surely they’ll beat the Dolphins, a team that has beat 1 team with a better than 500 record this year, this time around at home in KC in zero degree temps, with Reid and Mahomes having essentially a week off, right?
This is the popular thinking, and I kind of do expect the Chiefs (and the NFL, and the zebras) to somehow pull this game out, but… 4.5 points? We know about the Dolphins, and their inability to beat a good team; they’ve been sliding down the stretch, losing 3 of their last 5 games, although they did beat the Cowboys… We know about Tua on the road vs a winning team… 2-9 straight up, 3-7-1 ATS. We know about the Dolphins in cold games over the past 20 years.. 8-19; Tua has been not so great in the cold either… But what about the mighty Chiefs? They’re a 500 football team over the past 10 games. Their offense is dog shit, filled with WRs that can’t catch. But yeah, they still have Mahomes and Kelce; shut Kelce down and ? What about Pacheco? The Chiefs a running team? That would be smart. And oh yeah, their defense is legit, but yeah 5-5 since starting the season 6-1. This isn’t the same Chiefs team from years past, although this IS the playoffs, and they’ll surely turn it on… right?
There are some pretty significant injuries to note. Hill should play, but Waddle, Mostert? At the bare minimum, need Waddle in this game. The Dolphins have lost Chubb and a couple other significant guys over the past few weeks. Too much to overcome? There is one guy, Achane, that was not playing the last time around; have you seen him play? What about the Reid vs McDaniel chess game. Have to lean on experience, right?
Any sane person will be betting the Chiefs, yet it’s only 60% on the Chiefs; lot of insane people out there? Well, I’ve been called worse. Unless all of those guys are out for Miami, I’ll be on the Dolphins. I really like the 4.5 points, thinking about waiting for more…… screw it, let me lock this in now.
Dolphins +4.5
And we’re off… Good luck to anyone throwing a little dough on the games; enjoy one of the best times of year!
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