I’m still surviving… I have one bonus bet left from my initial $5 bet. I’ve built up my bankroll, stress free. It’s been fun. We know the NFL is rigged, especially big games; who knows what the hell will happen this weekend. Now I’m not saying the NBA doesn’t partake in any scripting of games; I’m saying I think it’s easier to predict it. They haven’t quite perfected it like the NFL… haha. Look at me, win a couple NBA bets, and I think I got it figured out. Well, I’m not stupid enough to believe that, but I do have a theory.
It’s pretty simple. When looking at the spreads for the games, figure out which ones jump out to you. Example 1: Atlanta Hawks at Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday night. Dallas was only favored by 2.5 points; I thought “that’s strange”… Is Luka still out? No. Dallas is missing other players, but for the Mavs, it’s really all about Luka; if he’s in, they’re fine IMO. And the Hawks? They’re a middle of the road team, and they’re only catching 2.5 points on the road against one of the best players in the NBA Luka Doncic? I threw a little at it; Hawks won. Example 2: Washington Wizards at New York Knicks. Knicks were only favored by 6 points, which kind of jumped out at me. I thought that line should be more… things that make you go hmmm. So, then bet the Wizards, right? Right. I didn’t, but.. they won outright. So my theory is, any line that jumps out as strange… if it’s too low, jump on the opposite; if it’s too high, lay the points. I know everybody’s interpretation of the lines is different. The more you know about the NBA, the more fine tuned your “palate”. For me, I’m not studying all kinds of shit; I don’t watch a ton of NBA other than the Bulls. I’m Mr. Joe Q Public. So this, “going opposite” theory seems to make sense. I guess that can be applied across the board, ESPECIALLY the NFL. Act accordingly.
In looking ahead, there’s a game that sticks out to me a bit: Boston -6 over Golden State? Now, I DO know the Warriors ATS record on the road this year; it’s absolutely brutal, which is why I was going to play the Bulls the other day, but because they’re MY team, and I’m trying not to mix head and heart yet, I didn’t. So bet on the Celtics in Boston in a Finals rematch, where the Celtics will get their revenge, right? Wrong. Even though that makes a hell of a lot of sense, I’m going oppo…. just like I wish the Cubs hitters would do; I’m even tempted to take the ML, but… we’ll gladly take the 6 points with my final bonus bet. Let’s go Warriors.
After this last bonus bet is placed, it will get more real; not as easy to pull the trigger on things when it’s your money. Not as easy to go opposite a popular opinion putting your money to back it up, so… I will probably tread lightly, but… I will continue to follow my theory. No theory or system will be 100%; have to keep that in mind, but… in the long run, if you’re winning more than you’re losing, that would be a successful strategy. Good luck figuring out your strategy in the National Betting Association.
Leave a Reply