The Super Bowl isn’t for almost 2 weeks. There will be lots of things to read; everybody will have something to say. You have plenty of time to change your mind 100x on this game. I’m surely not immune to this. However, I do have some early thoughts on this game, thoughts that I have already bet on, big (big in my unit terms). Yeah, I’ve already bet 5 units on this game; I think I’m done for now, but will probably add, depending on how the line moves over the next 2 weeks. But yeah, I’m on Frisco.
It’s the last football game of the year, so might as well go balls out, right? Well, sort of. This will be my biggest bet NFL game of the year, but certainly don’t want to just bet it to bet it. My NFL year has been a roller coaster. I started off red-hot, even turning in an undefeated 6-0 weekend. But, soon after, I crashed and burned. The 2nd half of the season was a train wreck for me. The playoffs… I did OK; I made out a bit, but more importantly, stopped the bleeding. I didn’t have strong enough feelings in any of those games to load up, but I do here. This hasn’t always meant good things. I did win big in the Tampa Bay Oakland Super Bowl back in the day. I think that was the most I’ve ever won on 1 game… $350 I think. I won on the Pittsburgh Arizona Super Bowl. Of course, I took a bath on the Bears… haha. I can’t remember last year for some reason; did I win on that game? I believe I did. Anyways, what does all of that matter this year? Well, you’re supposed to learn from your mistakes; you’re supposed to take all that experience in and use it to your advantage. That’s what I TRY to do, but of course, nothing is full proof.
Everybody was on the Chiefs early. The line opened at 49ers -3; I saw it at 2.5. I grabbed it then. I grabbed the ML too. I grabbed it at -2. I grabbed it at 2 more different ML points. The line finally settled in at 49ers -1; it’s currently back up to -2. I think this line will bounce between a pick’em and -3 the whole time, until the majority of the public come in with their bets, which I imagine, will be on the Chiefs. This is the one thing I’ll be monitoring. If too many people are betting on San Fran, and the line goes too far the other way… let’s just say 49ers -3.5… I doubt it, BUT if it goes that way, I’ll take some KC plays at that point. More than likely it will stay right around here; stay tuned.
The Chiefs are the hottest team in the NFL; I don’t think you can argue that, unless you want to just look at the 2nd half against the Lions. Overall, in the NFL playoffs, the Chiefs have been the best team. They haven’t been the best team all year; the Niners have been the best team all year, at least most of the year. That other team that would have held that title, the Ravens, just got clipped last week. Does what happened in the regular season matter right now? Do the playoffs mean more? Certainly looks like it per the line. This line should be higher IMO, although there are some folks that think the wrong team is favored. Who is right?
Well, Vegas is right of course. The line was set that way for a reason. Now, we will decide where it goes. So much more to say about this game. Lucky for me, there are many days until kickoff. Lots more to come…
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