Did you see what happened in the NFL this week? Before MNF, favorites have gone 12-3; that’s just crazy. If the Vikings cover against the Bears, it would be a record; 13 favorites in 1 week! This would be the first time this has happened in the Super Bowl era. Just wild…
Of course, I took another hit in these games. I did have one favorite with the Steelers, but starting on Thanksgiving, the Commanders, Seahawks, Browns, Bills, and Chargers failed me miserably. I did take one other favorite… the Detroit Lions… bastards. Betting on favorites is not my favorite thing to do, so, yeah, this blow makes sense… but does it? For me personally, yeah, but in general, the public usually bet on favorites; the public usually doesn’t win. However, for those following along, “the public” have had a pretty good go at it. Since I like to bet on dogs, and go against the grain, the last few weeks have been especially bad for me. Ever since that 6-0 week… I knew it.
On a blackjack table, when you’re hot, you press, right? Well, that’s what the dealers recommend. So… when you’re hot in sports betting, you press too? Well, I didn’t… thankfully. I was about to. It almost feels like once you get on a hot streak, you need to go oppo… not oppo of the public… oppo of YOUR opinion. It’s not that simple. There is no one size fits all strategy to be successful at sports betting. You need to change up your game. I’ve been working on money management and discipline; I say A for money management and B for discipline. I’ve been betting a lot of games lately… maybe too many. The one thing that I have not established is the handicapping of games; I need this.
It’s like building a system, factoring in many, many variables, that will dictate your plays each week. I just finished reading Gambler by Billy Walters; I will talk about this in more detail at some point. But yeah, a couple chapters in his book focus on this. I need time to develop my system. I’ve been doing parts of it… research has been good in most cases; taking into account certain factors is good too. But, I don’t have a baseline… rankings for each and every team and player, and how to adjust them each and every week. I need to get there if I really want to do my thing.
Funny enough, I had a really good day on Saturday in College Football; too bad I lost it back in the NFL on Sunday. Thursday was a blood bath; did I mention that? It’s been a roller coaster ride, but I’m maintaining; need to figure a way to break this spinning in neutral. My last bet of the NFL week is on none other than the Bears on MNF. Forget the points, I’m going ML, plus throwing in a little SGP (same game parlay), which I rarely do, to boot. If I were to hit those bets, I’d be back towards the high part of my rollercoaster ride. Certainly the Bears wouldn’t let me down, right?
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